My Influence

is gaining more strength than I'd previously thought. My predictions are starting to become less likely to occur or, more and more, flat out wrong. That can only mean one thing: that people are listening and, with their reactions, changing the future. Thank you, my quiet followers! You are galvanizing me to go further. Onward and upward!

Thank you!

The Anniversary

Dear Mr. President Barack Obama,

A speech about health care outlined principles. A speech today on Wall Street did the same. Where's the beef?

If your aim is to be the Teflon president, please know that you fail. If it wasn't your aim, you're doing a good job of fooling the future historians who decide your legacy.

Rope-a-doping the Republicans won't work -- they're too tough. As Joe Wilson showed us, they will stop at nothing to defeat you. Be as smooth as lacquered wood at your own peril.

Here's why: the push and pull of politics allow the Repubs to score major gains in 2010, and though some have cast me as a right-wing ideologue, I can only count my views as apolitical -- or a-apocalypse to be more precise.

Stand strong now, or be swept up in a backlash until you put on your brilliant campaign in 2012 against Jeb Bush. Be a policy-maker or a political shaker.

America needs the former.

Best,
Bloginator

2009 NFL Preview

1. Put your money on the Pats to win it all. I don't care how tight the odds get. Trust me.

2. Same for the Redskins to win the NFC East. Trust me.

3. Draft James Davis, Browns, and Robert Meachem, Saints, as deep sleepers in your fantasy league. Just saying.

4. Watch the Week 14 Lions @ Ravens game. You will see something you've never seen before in your life and will remember for the rest of it.

The Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer

Got a recurring SNL sketch, and he had no foresight.

I can't even get a book deal, and you wonder why this economy almost self-destructed.

What fairness is left, Harper Collins? Where's the justice, Random House?

On Comedy

Dear Stephen Colbert,

I'm not sure how you found a job on a comedy channel. Your "quips" confuse me. Your "segments" are opaque. What are you trying to do?

I may not understand modern humor. Its rhythm and tone are disgusting to a man like me, who's seen what I've seen. Please forgive me if I can't laugh while Rome burns. Please forgive me if your parodies of good, conservative values make my stomach turn. Mr. Colbert, it is your mockery that sedates us before the fateful day of January 16, 2014.

Please stop being so funny before it's too late. You won't be laughing then.

Best,
A Real American

The Double-Dip Recession of 2007-2016

a.k.a America's Lost Decade a.k.a. Japan the Sequel a.k.a. The End of American Hegemony

I thought my blog would take off instantly. I thought I could get the message out. I thought, Hey, I've come from the future; instead of just buying up a bunch of cheap stocks and selling them all in early September, maybe I can help this country help the world avoid what I left behind: a vast wasteland of burning bodies and crumbled buildings.

But more than three months in, I have one follower. Count them. One. I thought wrong.

You're blind, Americans. And now I have discovered you can't read either. You're so myopic that you don't even understand the concept of a forest anymore.

Last chance saloon. Just to show me someone's watching, I need you to do one thing. If you are very good-looking (like, extraordinarily so) and are in or near Los Angeles or visiting any time soon, go to the bar The Dime on Saturday, August 15, and find a young man in a black, button-down shirt. Whisper to him, "I want you." He'll know what to do. Also, if you just tell someone you know who is very good-looking, this will work, too.

All best,
T1000

Los Angeles

The City of Angels needs a pro football team. Now. Or else. Not for me, of course, but, as always, for the sake of the Western world. And Eastern, for that matter.

I don't care to pinpoint the reason no franchise has moved or expanded to Los Angeles since the Rams and Raiders left. Could it be that NFL owners, in order to scare up cash for a new stadium, need an empty major city to threaten their fans with moving to? It could be. Could it be that of all the Hollywood hustlers and dealmakers, there's not one who can put together an acceptable ownership group and stadium? Yes. Could it be bad luck that's about to change? Nope.

Coming from the future, I can tell you L.A. never gets a team. And when I say never, I mean never. (The planet is destroyed in 2029. Basically.) And it's so sad, because as L.A. and New York lose their influence in the coming years, the nation loses its bearings. It turns out having its two major cultural centers on each coast kept America in equilibrium.

But true Manifest Destiny requires America's greatest creation, pro football, be present in Los Angeles. The Lakers and the Dodgers just weren't enough to keep Angelinos from bursting out into the riots that led to the invocation of marshal law, which led to the Battle of Santa Monica, which led to...oh Dear God. Just give LA a team.

Dear Dan Snyder

You need to hire me now. Let me tell you why.

The putridity of the NFL's signature franchise continues in perpetuity. All the way to the apocalypse. "But your trip back in time has created a parallel universe," you might say. "In this reality, the Redskins might win the Super Bowl." Bullshit. Good NFL franchises build through the Draft. You have a clinical predisposition to find the quick fix. Building isn't part of your complexion. You prefer acquisitions to organic growth. You need to find someone with the right instincts to run your team. And that person is me.

Having seen the next 20 years of NFL football, I will come equipped with a superior knowledge base. I'll know what stars are hiding personal trouble. I'll know which draft picks are hiding superior athleticism. I know who the next Tom Brady is -- and he's within our grasp.

To my readers, the answer is "yes". I am a Washingtonian. Thousands of you out there have devoted your lives to "outing" me, combing my columns for hints to my identity. I'm here to tell you Dan Snyder is the only one who can pull me out of the shadows.

Create a new reality, Dan, one in which we win Super Bowls together and rebuild a dynasty.

Dear Andy Roddick

It's okay. You can stop parading your beautiful paramours. You've got nothing to prove. Be yourself.

Dear Fray

Your music doesn't last, but you have to stop. In 2011, nine upper-middle-class conservatives form a guerrilla group called the "Dirty Derivatives". They take as their theme song "How to Save a Life". It's an ironic name, though, if you can guess what their goals were.

When I first came back to this time and place, I wasn't concerned about preventing the future disasters this group is to cause. I didn't see it as part of the greater story of our inevitable destruction; I'm still not sure it is; but I do know I can prevent it.

You see, the story of the Dirty Derivatives is one I took to heart as a youngster because the leader, Bucky Dunning, sounded a lot like me: handsome, almost unfairly so; charming, to a fault; angry, but for very good reasons; and oddly autistic. He'd sing the same lyrics over and over again without concern for the people around him. In the future, I thought it was a strange mental malady. But now, I realize it was The Fray.

"I found God/ on the corner of First and Amistad/ where the West/ was all but won." Just typing those words made me furious -- I know I'm condemned to singing them to myself for at least the next 18 hours. Finishing this post will take almost all my willpower now. Why the hell would they write something like this, and how in the world does the lead singer's voice make it so catchy? And why couldn't he have found God on the corner of First and, say, Delancey?

Combine a chaotic world with changes that anger the privileged, and you'll have pushback.

Sprinkle The Fray on top?

Goldman Sachs

Dear Lloyd,

You'd be amazed how difficult manipulating currencies becomes after a nuclear holocaust. You'll be astonished by the damage explosives do to your trading floor.

Your employees will be shocked how easily their Greenwich mansions get looted. And by how quickly their children join the looters.

It's unfortunate that the leader of the uprising doesn't take your political donations. Sad that the name of your company is his No. 1 applause line.

You should be proud your company goes out heavy on the shorts. Light on the courage, though, without even a dab of national leadership.

But that was never your job, was it? You job is to make money. Ironic isn't it? That you end up making the entire system of money dissolve.

Best,
The Bloginator

P.S. I'm not even going to try to change your behavior. Only intelligent people are capable of change.

The Charlatan

Dear Malcolm Gladwell,

What you are doing and have done is bad enough. But the catastrophic consequences of what you are about to do? I don't think even you can imagine.

There are times in a man's life when his persona gains leverage over his person, when the hype engulfs the man. You're not yet a demagogue, but soon you will be. And you will become the leader of an egalitarian movement that, by the Law of Unintended Consequences, secures the power of a totalitarian regime.

The Tipping Point was a nice debut for you. It got your name out there. The phrase is part of today's American culture. Never mind that the fact that it's hogwash social science, Black Magic coated in sugary language. Your thoughts are so compellingly uttered as to render them dangerous. It's a sad choice you made not to be a novelist. I think you could have been one of the all-time greats.

And Blink? To my mind, it's the most irresponsible book of the 21st century. And I can say that having read or read about all the books up to the Nuclear holocaust of 2029. Ain't no more books being written where I came from. Blink told all the W's out there to go with their instincts. It suggested first thought, best thought, no more thoughts, that the mind is smarter than the methods we created to vet our instincts. Blink was a step back in the evolution of human thought. Anything you wrote after Tipping Point was going to be front and center in the book world. And you chose to suggest that we make decisions in the blink of an eye?

Forget about Outliers. Now you're just mailing it in. Soon, you'll get bored of this social science and yearn to be a national leader. You won't think you're pursuing demagoguery, but as your latest article about the full-court press proves, you've lost all sense of reality. How can you possibly state with any seriousness that a full-court press moves an underdog's chance of winning from 0% to 50%? That statement betrays a gross lack of understanding of both basketball and statistics.

The Princeton teams of the 1990s proved how underdogs win: minimize possessions, which effects a smaller sample size, allowing for more randomness. Try to get open threes, pack it on defense in an effort to get the other team to shoot outside shots instead of pounding it inside. The Roy Williams philosophy is a direct response to that. He realized that the favorite needs to run, run, run in order to increase the sample size of possessions, allowing for less randomness. And running nets you more easy shots like dunks, layups, and wide-open threes. As much as the Princeton offense is a way to get open shots in the halfcourt, the North Carolina offense is a way to a get open shots without letting the D set up in the halfcourt. A fullcourt game benefits the favorite; a halfcourt game benefits the underdog. Why, beyond the statistics? The favorite, in basketball, is generally the more athletic team. And you can't full-court press a team that's more athletic than you. No matter what Malcolm Gladwell says.

What you do, Malcolm, gets worse and worse. Stop now, when all you've done is tell a few lies, incite a few ignoramuses, and insult the game of basketball.

Sarah Palin

Dear Critics of John McCain,

You don't understand what "rolling the dice" means, do you?

When John McCain picked Sarah Palin to be his vice president, he was roundly criticized. She's too much of an unknown! Did they even vet her? And of course these were valid concerns, but if the question is, Did John McCain make the right choice in picking Sarah Palin? The answer is, Yes, he absolutely did.

Humans who suffer from severe cases of hindsight bias will posit this scenario: what if he had picked Mitt Romney? Then, when the economy collapsed, Mitt would have been there. And as a rich, successful businessman, he knows a lot about the economy. First off, this hypothetical dismisses the economic backbone of the Romney campaign: Four more years of George Bush policies. Assuming he could distance himself from that motto, would he have had any interesting policy ideas or rhetoric? And even if he did, would the McCain-Romney ticket have been so far behind in the polls it would have been impossible to catch up? Impossible to say...unless you grew up in an America where McCain did pick Romney. In that case, you would know.

But I'm not here to talk about what might have been. I'm here to talk about Sarah Palin. And rolling the dice. Unless you have an illness, you only roll the dice - or gamble - in a political campaign because if you didn't you would certainly lose. Therefore, the fact that McCain's gamble didn't win him the election doesn't mean it wasn't a smart move. Most dice rolls lose. But you do it because it gives you a chance to win. And Sarah Palin gave John McCain a chance to win.

Her speech at the Republican convention rallied the base and scared Chicken Little liberals shitless. McCain surged in the polls -- that fact alone means he made the right choice. He needed a surge; he got it. What happened after was just unfortunate and the typical cost of "rolling the dice". It's my personal opinion that it was the Katie Couric interview -- and that alone -- that "tipped"* the American people against Gov. Palin. But who knows?

Bottom line, unless you think the McCain strategists were morons or addicts, they made the right choice. And it was a bold one. But the "kinda like a community organizer except I had actual responsibilities" line hit right to the heart of the weakness of the Obama campaign (what was he doing after college and before law school again? How many years was it?).

In the interests of full disclosure, and to clear my conscience, I want you all to know that McCain did pick Romney when I was a child. They lost in a landslide.

* = See my next post for information about the future demagogic exploits of one Malcolm Gladwell.

On Confusion

To my Readers --

Many of you -- in no uncertain terms -- have expressed your frustration with me for claiming Cleveland was going to win it all unless the Lakers gave Shannon Brown more playing time. Let me assure you: it wasn't a claim.

In addition to being considered exceedingly handsome in the future (where people are much, much better-looking), I also have an airtight memory. There is no way the Cavs didn't win the 2009 title. I'm sure of it. Which brings us to an interesting question: who changed the future?

I considered whether there are others out there like me, whether I am now in a different universe -- similar but parallel. For my own reasons, I have not sought out family members, and so I don't know if everything's the same as I remember it. I certainly haven't sought out myself. But what I have done is read the news, check the scores, and follow the stock market, and what I find is consistent with what I remember. So, after all this, I came to the only logical conclusion: I had changed the future.

If you saw Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, you know Shannon Brown got crucial minutes and took his team from a seven-point deficit to an 11-point lead before leaving to a standing ovation. You also know his dunk over the Birdman was one of the great moments in Laker history. I can't say I'm amazed my blog has caught on so quickly that NBA head coaches are already taking strategy tips from it, but I am surprised. Whichever way you cut it, I changed the future.

Now, when one thing changes in the present, everything in the future is altered. I can't be sure why Shannon Brown getting playing time would suddenly prevent the Cavs from overcoming the Magic, but I can guess. LeBron obviously watched Game 5. He saw Shannon's dunk. Shannon's a former Cavalier. The Cavs wings had been struggling mightily in the playoffs. Especially on defense. And if you saw Shannon's defense against Chauncey Billups in the late-3rd, early-4th quarter, then you know Brown has the potential to be an All-NBA defender. And you know LeBron saw it, too. And it made him angry. And that anger had the slightest effect on his emotional outlook in Game 6. And that's why he had his worst game of the playoffs.

I resolve from here on out to be much more careful about what I reveal. I now see the power of the Law of Unintended Consequences, and it scares me.

Derek Fisher

Dear Phil Jackson,

As Zen Master, you have led your teams to nine titles. SPOILER ALERT: you will not be winning your tenth unless you change your strategy.

I'm not a Lakers fan. And though basketball is a lovely artifact, cherished by many in the era I come from, corruption and greed ended your National Basketball Association in 2022 -- but not before the outcome of the 2009 NBA Finals triggered a series of events that led to the collapse of a major American city and the creation of an anarchical movement hellbent on spreading horror and cannibalism throughout the mid-western region of the United States.

Let me explain. The Cavaliers win the title this year. LeBron James (who, as you will find out in the coming years, was "chosen" in a way no one ever imagined) leads the city of Cleveland to its first pro sports title in 45 years. The energy of the celebration sparks a recovery of the city's economy in the coming months. In a little over a year from now, when Cleveland will repeat, the city is on the verge of returning to its former heights.

Now, I don't want to go too deeply into what happens next for the simple reason that I value my safety here in 2009. My sports bets and stock picks afford me a comfortable lifestyle. And I feel a book deal is a foregone conclusion. So let me just point you in the right direction: Chinese businessmen part owners Cavaliers spook LeBron to New York Cleveland riots takes over Detroit creates Midwestern enclave leader Sean Hannity possesses warhead...

In the press conference announcing his signing with the Knicks, LeBron expresses incredible guilt for ditching Cleveland but says, "Because I broke the drought and gave the city two titles, I can leave with my head held high. Mission accomplished. And I hope one day the great citizens of Cleveland will forgive me."

So here's how we change the future: Shannon Brown right now is just a reserve guard for the Los Angeles Lakers. He becomes much more than that in the coming years: an All-Star, a champion, a Laker legend. It is he who leads the Lakers to an epic triumph over LeBron's Knicks in seven in the 2014 finals. Basketball historians look back on the 2009 Finals as an indictment of Phil Jackson's coaching record: his final season ended by his stubborn reliance on the aged veteran guard Derek Fisher, whose inability to make jump shots, guard opposing players, or even dribble the ball without slipping brings the Lakers down in seven games in the Finals.

So Phil, hear me now, and listen to me later: Play Shannon Brown. And not because your substitution patters cause riots in LA in a month's time; they're quickly snuffed out, and only 77 people die.

Do it because the mid-western U.S. splits off in 2015. And the Chinese businessmen who take ownership of the Cavaliers are long-term thinkers, and a seceded territory in the heart of the U.S. is part of their plot.

If Derek Fisher is allowed to play significant minutes the rest of these playoffs, the apocalypse is certain. But if LeBron James is prevented from winning a title this year and next, he may yet stay in Cleveland, which would give us a chance to salvage that city.

The future is in your hands, Phil. Knowing all this, what will you choose?

Rock Music

Dear Classic Rock Music Fans,

For those of you who listen to classic rock music, I write this with not one iota of derision or disrespect but with a message: stop living the way you're living. I only ask for alterations in your lifestyles and behaviors because the fate of the human race depends on it, not out of any personal opinion of my own.

A funny thing happened on the way to the future, 2009 Americans. Despite the emergence of Google and the iPhone, DVRs and Napster, a select group of you who experienced your 20s and 30s in this day and age decided to stop listening to rock music after Nirvana fizzled out and Pearl Jam became irrelevant. Despite an objective surge in creativity and content from the likes of Jack White and TV on the Radio, you retreated to the Stones and the Beetles and fell into what psychiatrists from my era will call "early-onset Grandpa-ism", a mental disease that spreads like a virus and festers like a sore. As you know, in 2008, the Los Angeles rock station Indy 103, a petri dish for creativity and a haven for men and women of taste, collapsed. By 2017, the Coachella music festival will be no more. Unless we change the future, our most talented musicians will be left without the perfect outlet for adolescent rage, rebellion, and redemption.

Now no one wants to call you people "lame" or blame you all for the downfall of American creativity. Nobody wants to say, "Grow up. Look at the world around you. There's amazing music being produced. Go to a concert. Stop sitting in your room, sulking, and living in the past." Not a single person from my era wants to do this. What we want to do is blame you for the collapse of human society. Because it is your fault.

Let me explain more clearly so you can understand more acutely the pain you have caused. In the year 2014, genetic engineering becomes possible much sooner than we think it will now (in your era). A group of jacked-up uber-humans with brains like mush emerges. They take over our schools in ways the bullies of your era never imagined, destroying the smaller children's psyches and breaking their bones.

Out of this rubble, a genius emerges. He's Bob Dylan wrapped in Neil Young, with a little Mick Jagger sprinkled on top. (I can't tell you his name in the hopes that he'll be saved.) He's five years old today, and he's already mastered every Led Zeppelin song on his little guitar. The kid becomes a star at age 16 with his breakout hit "Before the Jihad". By 2022, he's ready to tour nationwide. His manager sets up the opening show at Yankee Stadium. He's touted as the one who'll save rock music. And maybe if rock music had been saved, we could have maintained hope after our government crumbled. We might have been able to maintain a national unity - an identity in the face of what came next...

But the manager was a dreamer, not a planner. The Steinbrenners were out of the loop. No one was marketing the kid; they thought, in the age of instantaneous information, the kid would market himself.

True rock fans didn't make it to New York that day; they thought the ticket prices would be out of control. They didn't know that anyone with any taste had left New York in the trailing months, the Big Apple now a wasteland of designer suits and rotten toro.

And the kid was devastated. He never recovered from the nearly-empty stadium he played to that day. They told him that the opening act wanted to bag the show altogether, but the kid said, The show must go on; if I play, they will come.

He was wrong that day. But he doesn't have to be.